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日本农业遭重创 或打破国际农产品市场格局

放大字体  缩小字体 发布日期:2011-03-23  浏览次数:848453
内容摘要:日本地震以及由此引发的海啸,核泄漏事故不但短期内重创当地农业,也有可能打破当前国际农产品(000061)市场的贸易格局,推高国际农产品的整体价格。从中长期来看,日本或将增加农产品的进口数量,而中国国内农产品出口企业有望受益。 灾区农业或遭重创 日

      日本地震以及由此引发的海啸,核泄漏事故不但短期内重创当地农业,也有可能打破当前国际农产品123彩票(000061)市场的贸易格局,推高国际农产品的整体价格。从中长期来看,日本或将增加农产品的进口数量,而中国国内农产品出口企业有望受益。 

  灾区农业或遭重创 

123彩票  RIBENDONGBEIDIQUGONGCHENGXIANFASHENGDECHAOJIDADIZHENYINFALEHAIXIAO,BINGDAOZHIRIBENFUDAOHEDIANZHANFASHENGFANGSHEXINGWUZHIXIELOUSHIGU。DIZHENZHENZHONGQUDEGONGCHENGXIAN(XIANTINGSUOZAIDIWEIXIANTAISHI)、BEIHAIDAO(DISHIDI,HAIXIAOYANMEI)SHIRIBENZHUYAONONGYECHANQU。 

123彩票  GENJURIBENNONGLINSHUICHANSHENG2008NIANDEDAMITONGJISHUJUTUICE,SHOUZAIDIQUZHONG,DAMICHANLIANGPAIZAIRIBENQUANGUOQIAN10WEINEIZHAN7XI,ZHANQUANGUOZONGCHANLIANGDE35.23%。CONGNONGYESHENGCHANDEJIAODU,RIBENDONGBEIBUDIQUCHULEDANGQIANSHOUDAODEYANZHONGZAIHAIWAI,WEILAIKENENGHAIHUIZAOYUDAOJIAOGAOJIBIEDEDUOCIYUZHEN,ZHEIJIDUANQINONGYESHENGCHANDEHUIFUDAILAILEJIDAFENGXIAN。TONGSHI,HEFUSHEYEZHENGZAIWEIXIEGAIDIQUJIZHOUBIANDIQUDENONGCHANPINSHENGCHANANQUANYUNONGDIKEGENGZUOXING,ZHEIZHONGWURANDEYINGXIANGKENENGSHIZHANGQIDE,JUYOUPOHUAIXINGDEBINGQIEBUKENI。 

  CICIDIZHENBOJIDEGONGCHENGXIAN、YANSHOUXIAN、FUDAOXIANDENGDOUSHIRIBENDEZHONGYAOYUYEJIDI,FENBULERIBENYUE35%ZUOYOUDEZHONGYAOGANGKOU。RIBENDIZHENYINFADEHAIXIAOZAOCHENGLEDANGDIYUCHANGYINGJIANSHESHIYIJIDALIANGYUCHUANDEHUIHUAI。CIWAI,HEXIELOUDAOZHIDEHEFUSHEZHONGZHANGQIYEKENENGYINGXIANGHAIYANGHESHENGTAIHUANJING,CONGERYINGXIANGHAICHANPINSHENGCUNYIJISHIYONGANQUAN。CIWAI,HEFUSHEDUIDANGDIDECHUMUYEYINGXIANGYEBURONGHUSHI。RIBENHEXIELOUSHIGUYIJIQIFANGSHEXINGWUZHIDEKUOSAN,SHIZAIQUROULEISHIPINZAIYUANTOUSHANGMIANLINWURANDEFENGXIAN。RULINJINDEYANSHOUXIANDECHUMUYEWEIJURIBENQIANLIE,SHIROUNIU、RUNIUCHANDI。 

123彩票  ZHONGXINZHENGQUAN(600030)RENWEI,CICIDIZHENYIJIYINFADEHAIXIAO,HEXIELOUSHIGU,KENENGDAOZHIRIBENSHUICHANPINJICHUQINCHANPINDEZIJILVJINYIBUXIAJIANG。RIBENSHISHIJIESHANGZUIZHONGYAODESHUICHANPINXIAOFEIGUO,SHUICHANPINDEXIAOFEISHIRIBENDISIDASHIWUXIAOFEILEIBIE,ZHANBIYUE9%,JINCIYUGULEI、SHUCAIHENIUNAIJIQIZHIPIN,ROULEIXIAOFEIZAISHIWUXIAOFEIZHONGJUYUDILIUWEI,ZHANBIWEI5%。SHIJISHANG,SHOUDAOZIYUANYUESHU,TONGSHIBANSUIXUQIUDEZENGZHANG,RIBENSHUICHANPINZIJILVZI1996NIANKAISHILIANXU7NIANBUDUANXIAJIANG,MUQIANWEICHIZAI53%ZUOYOUDESHUIPING,NIUROUZIJILV43%,JIROUZIJILV70%ZUOYOU。 

  CICIZAIHAIYIFANGMIANDAOZHISHUICHAN,CHUQINXINGYESHENGCHANLIANGXIAJIANG,GENGWEIZHONGYAODESHISUIZHEHEFANGSHEWUZHIBUDUANXIANGRIBENQITADIQUYIJIHAIYANGMIANKUOSAN,KENENGDAOZHISHUICHANPINJICHUQINCHANPINSHOUDAOHEWURAN,YUJIRIBENSHUICHANPINYIJICHUQINCHANPINDEGONGJIDUANQUEJUMIANHUOJIANGJIAJU。 

  A股相关企业或受益 

123彩票  ZHONGGUOSHIRIBENZUIDADEJINKOUMAOYIHUOBAN,SHANGWUBUSHUJUXIANSHI,2010NIANRIBENCONGZHONGGUODEJINKOUEWEI1533.7YIMEIYUAN,ZHANRIBENJINKOUZONGEDE22.1%;RIBENCONGZHONGGUOJINKOUDEZHUYAONONGCHANPINMAOYIEZHANZONGJINKOUMAOYIEDE4%,CONGZHONGGUOJINKOUDEZHUYAONONGCHANPINBAOKUOYUMI、DADOU、JIROU、XINXIANSHUCAIYIJIXIAXIEDENG。 

123彩票  JUTIERYAN,RIBENDAYUE55%DEJINKOUJIROUZHIPIN,44%ZUOYOUDEJINKOULENGDONGSHUCAIHEXINXIANSHUCAI,YIJI8%ZUOYOUDEJINKOUDUIXIALAIZIYUZHONGGUO。QIZHONG,JIROUZHIPIN2010NIANZHONGGUOCHUKOUZHIRIBENDEGUIMOYUE18WANDUNZUOYOU,ZHANZHONGGUODUIWAICHUKOUZONGLIANGDE85%ZUOYOU,LINGWAI,ZHONGGUODUIRIBENCHUKOUDEKAOMANZHANCHUKOUZONGLIANGDE70%ZUOYOU,DUIRIBENCHUKOUDEDUIXIAZHANCHUKOUZONGLIANGDE22%ZUOYOU。 

123彩票  ZHANGQILAIKAN,CICIRIBENDIZHENYIJIYINFADEHEXIELOUDUIRIBENNONGCHANPINSHENGCHAN,YIJINONGCHANPINANQUANDEFUMIANYINGXIANGSHENYUANERYANZHONG,KENENGSHIZHANGQIDEHEBUKENIDE。JUCI,ZHONGXINZHENGQUANRENWEI,RIBENZAIHOUZHONGJIANGUOCHENGZHONG,CONGZHONGGUOJINKOUDEZHUYAONONGCHANPINBAOKUOSHUICHANPIN、QINLEI、SHUCAIDENGDEJINKOULIANGKENENGHUIYOUSUOTIGAO,XIANGGUANCHANPINDECHUKOUQIYEYOUKENENGHUISHOUYI。 

123彩票  CIWAI,CONGGUONEIJIBENMIANLAIKAN,GONGJIPIANJIN,CHENGBENTUIDONG,ZHUROU、JIROUDENGROULEICHANPINJIAGECHIXUSHANGZHANG。ZHUROUJIAGECHUANG2008NIAN10YUEFENYILAIDEXINGAO,JIROUJIAGEDAFUSHANGZHANG,BINGCHUANGXIALISHIXINGAO。 

  养殖,饲料板块目前拥有公司基本面,产品价格上涨,以及日本地震对我国畜禽产品进口需求增加等多重利好。其中,华英农业(002321)等直接向日本出口产品的公司有望直接受益。中信证券维持行业强于大市的判断,推荐养殖板块中受益于猪肉、鸡肉、鸭肉、鸡苗、鸭苗价格上涨的益生股份(002458)(002458,收盘价34.40元)、圣农发展(002299)(002299,收盘价18.40元)、华英农业(002321,收盘价26.70元)、雏鹰农牧(002477)(002477,收盘价54.27元)、正邦科技123彩票(002157)(002157,收盘价15.15元)等;推荐饲料板块中的海大集团(002311)(002311,收盘价27.86元)、大北农(002385) (002385,收盘价36.17元)、新希望(000876) (000876,收盘价20.05元)、通威股份(600438)(600438,收盘价9.77元)、金新农(002548)(002548,收盘价27.08元)。 

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